Ministry of Defence - Strategic Trends: Future Character of Conflict (2015)

 

Introduction

 

There are a number of options available to a government seeking to achieve its policy objectives. These options include the use of soft and hard power involving activities across the diplomatic, economic and military levers of power. This paper seeks to describe what military forces are likely to experience in future conflicts, and provides pointers to those areas which will be essential to their success. Conflict follows a natural cycle of adaptation and response, but its evolution is neither linear, nor constant. Much in the last Defence Review remains valid. However, while we have adapted well to some of the demands of current operations there is a growing sense that aspects of Defence are out of phase and lagging; we are still optimised for the conflicts that we fought in the past. Future conflict will be increasingly hybrid in character. This is not code for insurgency or stabilisation, it is about a change in the mindset of our adversaries, who are aiming to exploit our weaknesses using a wide variety of high-end and lowend asymmetric techniques. These forms of conflict are transcending our conventional understanding of what equates to irregular and regular military activity; the ‘conflict paradigm’ has shifted and we must adapt our approaches if we are to succeed. From the evidence collected for this paper, it is clear that the challenges of the future will demand even greater institutional agility in the face of major resource constraints and some profoundly worrying dications that the West may be losing the initiative in terms of dictating the way war is fought. This paper, which draws upon the recently updated National Security Strategy (NSS) and the Department for International Development (DFID) White Paper, will offer a view on the future character of conflict and then identify the broad implications.