Forrester Jay - World Dynamics (1973)

Synopsis

Synopsis: World Dynamics represents a call to arms against this futility. It shows the opportunity for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the forces of his environment while there still remains time and maneuvering room. Man throughout history has focused on growth growth in population, standard of living, and geographical boundaries. But in the fixed space of the world, growth must in time give way to equilibrium. Malthus had postulated food supply as the ultimate limiting factor, but Professor Forrester suggests that pollution, crowding, and depletion of resources can play equally critical roles. Industrialization may be a more fundamental threat than population. Due to limitations of the environment, the entire world may not be able to rise to the standard of living that has been set as an example by the industrialized countries. Goals and aspirations of all countries must be drastically readjusted as growth and expansion give way to world equilibrium. The book is the first step towards adapting the principles of System Dynamics to the behavior of the forces involved in the transition from growth to world equilibrium. A stable enduring world equilibrium may require a combination of social, economic, and technical changes that include such counterintuitive policies as reducing the present emphasis on food production and industrialization Since its publication, the book has received world-wide notice and has catalyzed debate over the necessity of achieving world equilibrium. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Francis Fukuyama - Asia in a global war (1987)

 

Abstract

 

This article discusses the role of Asia in a future large-scale war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Soviet military buildup in the Far East and Asia's growing economic importance have led some observers to suggest that Asia rather than Europe may become the locus for a future U.S.-Soviet war. In spite of these changes, however, a "big" U.S.-Soviet war remains less likely to arise in Asia through escalation of local conflicts in the Far East than through the spread of clashes originating elsewhere, e.g., in Europe or the Persian Gulf. There are a number of reasons, historical and strategic, for thinking that the Soviet Union would not deliberately attack U.S. forces or allies in the Far East in a war that had begun outside of Asia. The United States is therefore likely itself to face the choice of whether to expand a European or South West Asian conflict to the Far East. This can be done in a number of ways, for example, through attacks on Soviet naval forces in the Sea of Okhotsk (as envisioned in the U.S. Navy's Maritime Strategy) or through air strikes against targets in the Soviet Far East. Opening up a second front in the Far East is likely to offer the United States concrete operational advantages, but will generate only a limited amount of politically useful leverage against the U.S.S.R. in a global conflict. Such a strategy is likely to face strong political opposition in Japan (which is crucial to U.S. ability to carry out operations against the Soviet Union), and may have unintended escalatory consequences. The article concludes that it would be preferable to concentrate on a strategy to delink the Far East from an extraregional conflict and to concentrate military planning on the defense of U.S. forces and allies in the area rather than offensive missions.

 

(RAND)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Francis Fukuyama - Gene Regime (2002)

 

Introduction

 

Imaginet he World Trade Organization( WTO) striking down a national ban on importing cloned embryos because it is a barrier to trade. Neither the WTO, nor individual governments, nor scientists, nor ethicists can effectively regulate human biotechnology on a global scale. So who will settle the troubling questions it raises?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Polak - The Image of the Future (2000)

Info

When Fred Polak came to the Institute for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences in Palo Alto as a Fellow in 1955, his recently published Die Toekomst Is Verleden Tijd had just receïved the Council of Europe Award. Since the Bouldings and the Polaks kept a joint household that exciting first year of the Institute's existence, Kenneth Boulding and I had ample opportunity to become acquainted with Fred Polak's unique ideas. The effect of that year on Kenneth Boulding can be traced to his The Image, which bears little surface relationship to The Image of the Future, but which did in fact first take root in Fred Polak's thinking, and vvas written at the close of that golden California year as a summing up of a rather
spécial kind of intellectual journey.

Professor Polak, the author of many previous publications on futurology, is the récipient of Fellowships from UNESCO, the Ford Foundation, and the Council of Europe which awarded him a prize for the original two-volume book The Image of the Future.

 

GOV.UK - Digital identity certification for right to work, right to rent and criminal record checks (2022)

Introduction

On 27 December 2021, the government announced its intention to enable employers and landlords to use certified digital identity service providers (IDSPs) to carry out identity checks on their behalf for many who are not in scope to use the Home Office online services, including British and Irish citizens. Alongside this the Disclosure and Barring Service’s (DBS) proposal will enable digital identity checking within their criminal record checking process using certified digital identity service IDSPs.

This guidance sets how IDSPs can become certified to complete digital identity checks for the Right to Work, Right to Rent, and DBS schemes respectively, in line with the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport’s (DCMS) UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework (the trust framework).

The trust framework is a set of rules organisations agree to follow to conduct secure, trustworthy identity or attribute checks. The initial alpha version of the trust framework was published in February 2021, with an updated version of the trust framework published in August 2021 following feedback from the public, industry, and civil society. A consultation on underpinning the trust framework in legislation ran from July to September 2021.

The Right to Work, Right to Rent, and DBS initiatives form part of DCMS’s trust framework’s testing process, and learnings will help to further refine its development.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implants - ASU - Advanced Neural Implants and Control (2002)

 

Info

 

The ability to engineer reliable, high-capacity direct interfaces to the brain and then integrate these into a host of new technologies will cause the world of tomorrow to be much different than that of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jonathan Glover - Causing Death and Saving Lives (1977)

 

Abstract

The moral problems of abortion, infanticide, suicide, euthanasia, capital punshiment, war and othe life-or-death choices. 

This is the earliest critical discussion in the context of modern/contemporary philosophy in the analytical tradition arguing that somebody with a reasonably stable character and the company of the right people would be able to enjoy eternity. 

 

 

 

Jonathan Ledgard - Interspecies Money (2022)

 

Brookings (Jonathan Ledgard) - Financing the preservation of diverse life on Earth in a capitalist system (2022)

 

Info

 

“Interspecies money” is the brainchild of British futurist Jonathan Ledgard, who has built a reputation for throwing out imaginative, left-field solutions to the planet’s existential threats. He started with a few key observations. First, biodiversity tends to be high where people are poor. Second, technological advances such as drones, smartphones, genomics and data storage have made it easier and cheaper to track wildlife. And third, new software tools including cryptocurrencies, blockchain and artificial intelligence make it possible to create digital avatars with agency – including spending power – in the real world. If we can do that for humans, he thought, why can’t we do it for nonhumans, allowing them to trade with us for the things that matter to each?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kate Rodriguez - Have we reached the fourth industrial revolution (2017)

 

Abstract

 

When political, business and nonprofit leaders meet each January for the World Economic Forum (WEF), one theme dominates the conversation. This year, it was the ideas in Klaus Schwab’s book The Fourth Industrial Revolution, which asserts that global society is entering a new phase of development, one in which disruptive technologies are fundamentally changing the world. The fusion of the digital world with the physical one brought about by breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, 3-D printing and energy storage will affect nearly every aspect of the way we work and live.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ministry of Defence - Allied Joint Doctrine for Psychological Operations (2015)

 

Info

 

Allied Joint Publication-3.10.1 outlines psychological operations planning and execution within the context of information operations.