Herman Kahn, William Brown & Léon Martel - The next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World (1976)

 

Publisher's Synopsis

A progress report on the Hudson Institute's studies in population growth, economic development, energy, resources, food, and the environment, presenting an affirmative projection of and strategy for future abundance and affluence.

 

Chapters 

 

I. INTRODUCTION: PUTTING GROWTH IN PERSPECTIVE 

The Current Malaise
The Hudson Study and the American Bicentennial
Four Characteristic Views of Two Basic Images of the Earth-Centered Perspective
Watersheds of History 

II. TURNING POINTS IN THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND PRODUCT 

Population in Perspective The Demographic Transition
Economic Growth, Yesterday and Today
The Economic Transition
GNP per Capita—The Transitions Combined

HI. ENERGY: EXHAUSTIBLE TO INEXHAUSTIBLE 

Future Demand
Fossil Fuels
Fission Power
The Transition to Long-Term Sources
Solar Energy
Geothermal Energy
Nuclear Fusion
Energy Systems of the 22nd Century
Efficient Use of Energy

IV. RAW MATERIALS: THE END OF THE BEGINNING 

The Long-Term Perspective for Resources
Near-Term Import Dependence
Mutual Dependence
Future Long-Term World Demand and Supplies

V. FOOD: SUPPLYING DEMAND 

Future Directions in Food Production
Nutritional Requirements
Increasing Food Production: Myths and Realities
Scenarios for the Next 200 Years
The Special Problem of India

VI. THE NEAR-TERM ENVIRONMENT: CLEAN AIR, CLEAR WATER AND AESTHETIC
LANDSCAPES 

A Perspective on the Current Issues
Some Consequences of Environmental Regulation
Environmental Economics
Technology: Force for Good or Evil?
Land-Use Issues
Future Environmental Progress

 

VII. THE DIFFICULT LONG-TERM ENVIRONMENT: MAINTAINING EARTH'S FRAGILE ENVELOPE 

Technology and the Faustian Bargain
Technological Innovation: Mistakes of Omission and
Commission
The Difficult Issues: Possibilities for Catastrophe

VIIL FROM PRESENT TO FUTURE: THE PROBLEMS OF TRANSITION TO A POSTINDUSTRIAL SOCIETY 

Basic Current Directions and Context
The Erosion of Traditional Societal Levers
How Safe Will the World Be?
Transitional Problems of Morale, Attitudes and
the Quality of Life
How Likely Are Democracy and World Government?

IX. THE TASKS AHEAD 

The First Task: A Realistic Image of the Future
Overcoming the Known Problems of the Near Term
Coping with the Unknown Problems of the Long
Term
Thinking About the Postindustrial Era

APPENDIX: TWO 

Kinds of Issues Facing Mankind