EU Institute for Security Studies & National Intelligence Council - Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (2010)

 

Preface

 

The United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) have joined forces to produce this assessment of the longterm prospects for global governance frameworks. This exercise builds on the experience of the two institutions in identifying the key trends shaping the future international system. Since the mid-1990s, the NIC has produced four editions of its landmark Global Trends report. The most recent one, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, published in late 2008, noted that momentous change was ahead, with the gap between increasing disorder and weakening governance structures widening. The EUISS produced the first EU-level report on the factors affecting the evolution of the international system, The New Global Puzzle. What World for the EU in 2025?, in 2006. The report stressed that a multipolar system is emerging and that matching the new distribution of power with new rules and institutions will be critical to preserving international peace and stability. 

The US and the EU do not always see eye to eye on every issue on the international agenda, but they share fundamental values and strategic interests to an extent not matched by any other partners in the world. Transatlantic agreement is no longer enough to effectively manage global challenges. Doing so will require renewed efforts to address governance gaps and strengthen multilateralism, in partnership with other pivotal centres of power and with the international community at large. This report provides an informal contribution to an important international debate on the way forward for global, regional and bilateral institutions and frameworks to meet emerging challenges. It is not meant as an exhaustive analysis evaluating the performance of individual institutions. While not being policy prescriptive, the report shares a strong belief – as exemplified by multilateralist approaches of the US and EU governments to resolving global problems such as the recent financial crisis – that global challenges will require global solutions. 

The report does not seek to examine all the various challenges likely to require multilateralist efforts, but rather highlights several important governance gaps. We therefore do not go into depth on proliferation or cybersecurity – which we believe are receiving greater attention. Instead, we focus on such issues as intrastate conflict, resource management, migration and biotechnology. Although recognised by many as ongoing challenges, we believe that the long-term impact of these issues on the strength of the international order has not been fully appreciated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top War -  Black transplantologists of Ukraine (2022)

Info

The human organ market is a whole underground industry with billions of dollars in circulation. Criminal groups organize networks that unite entire states. Demand invariably exceeds supply, which affects the cost of human organs. The price of a kidney now starts at $60-70 and ends at $150-180. A part of the liver will cost half as much, and a corneal fragment costs only $6-10. Prices are given for situations where the donor remains alive after organ removal, albeit practically disabled. In total, by selling a part of his body to black transplantologists, the unfortunate person receives no more than 10-15% of the average world cost of the organ. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Center for Global Development - Horizon 2025: End of the Beginning Development Cooperation in the Pandemic Age (2020)

Abstract

COVID-19 and economic responses to it have amplified and changed the nature of development challenges in fundamental ways. Global development cooperation should adapt accordingly. The focus of our analysis is on the “intelligent reconstruction” phase of 2022-2030, once the immediate stabilization of economies and the health pandemic have taken place. We look at changes in the development context that may have long-term effects: global growth, debt, budget deficits and taxes, aid, capital markets, along with poverty and vulnerability. We suggest that aid is moving beyond altruism to become an instrument of national self-interest and of better planetary management of the global commons. These new objectives for aid put more emphasis on what is happening within each country, rather than across countries. Metrics of environmental sustainability and social inclusion performance, as well as governance, will become more important determinants of aid’s effectiveness. We identify the trade-offs in using aid to simultaneously relieve debt distress and development distress, and conclude that other instruments beyond aid are needed. Prominent among these is far more ambitious use of multilateral and national development banks, and global policies to reduce capital outflows from developing countries. We encourage the delineation of areas of cooperation and competition between geopolitical rivals, to limit the tainting of development priorities with elements of “us” versus “them.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Club of Rome - The Aurelio Peccei Lectures & Dialogues (2001 - 2018)

 

Info

 

The CoR-EU Chapter started its lectures in the year 2001, before the formal constitution of the Club of Rome EU-Chapter as an autonomous association under Belgian law in January 2002. Upon initiative of Professor Dr. ir. Raoul Weiler (+ 2019), Founder President, the first lecture was given by the late Professor Sergey Kapitza, from Russia, Member of the Club of Rome. The topic dealt with the question of planetary demography on which he published a book. It was a successful start and convinced the EU-Chapter leaders to go on with the named Aurelio Peccei Lectures, a name was chosen in honour of the founder and inspirer of the Club of Rome. Over almost two decades the number has reached today the 100 lectures.

The topics and the speakers were chosen in harmony with the objectives of the Club of Rome. The city of Brussels, being the de facto capital of the European Union, provided an excellent environment with eminent experts in the different fields in which the Club of Rome has been active over half a century. Looking back over this fascinating period, it is not exaggerated to state that the CoR-EU has succeeded to build a strong intellectual profile, which has been appreciated by a large international public. A wide range of topics have been addressed: demography, poverty, globalisation & sustainability, knowledge societies & networks, ecology & alternative energies, climate change, cultural diversity, economy, micro-credit, planetary food availability, degrowth & social enterprise, ethics, and much more. The lecturers came from the entire planet, Europe, US, Africa, Asia, Australia, particularly drawn from UN organisations such as UNFCC & IPCC, UNEP and UNESCO, as well as from the World Bank, the World Economic and Social Forum, the OECD and Wikipedia. The Club of Rome EU-Chapter, through the broad spectrum of topics and eminent speakers, has gained international recognition and contributed to address the challenges the human society will face along the 21st century and beyond.

Mark DUBRULLE, 10 September 2018
President & Executive Director

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Chemical Biological Center - Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human / Mashine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of DOD (2019)

Abstract

This report, authored by Peter Emanuel, Scott Walper, Diane DiEuliis, Natalie Klein, James B. Petro, and James Giordano (proclaimed Mad Scientist); and published by the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Chemical Biological Center (CCDC CBC), culminates a year-long assessment to forecast and evaluate the military implications of machines that are physically integrated with the human body to augment and enhance human performance over the next 30 years. This report summarizes this assessment and findings; identifies four potential military-use cases for new technologies in this area; and makes seven recommendations on how the U.S. should proceed regarding human/machine enhancement technologies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dennis M. Bushnell - The bots, borgs and genetically modified humans welcome you to the future of energetics (date unknown)

Info

slideshow / presentation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Donald N. Michael - Technology Assessment in an Emerging World (1976)

 

Abstract

While the profound social changes under way today are by no means solely the result of technology, one of the important impacts of technology is the growing need for more concentrated efforts at producing and applying technology assessments; i.e., the need for systematic examinations of the long-range interactions between technology and the rest of societal activity. It is from this situation that I draw my thesis: The very conditions of social change, including the anticipated role of technology assessments (TA’s), preclude defining and valuing TA’s as exclusively rational, formal, technical activities. Instead, I suggest that the applicability of TA’s is at least as great if they are also valued and viewed as a form of art. Here, I do not mean, as is usually meant, that, given their primitive stage of development, TA’s are more craft than science. I mean art as art-on a par with, but different than science in process as well as purpose. The implications of this viewpoint for the producer and user of technology assessments are significant, and, if pursued, will overcome the limitations imposed by valuing TA’s only to the degree that they approxi-mate purely logical creations, useful only for technical applications. The realization of these benefits will require major efforts to conduct, use, and legitimize TA’s as an art form in which logic and the formal methodologies of TA serve the same functions as can- vas, paint, and brushes for the painter; or stone, chisels, and mallets for the sculptor; or musical notation, musical instruments, and performance capabilities for the composer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Richard Day - Transcript of Dr Lawrence Dunegan’s taped reminiscences (1969)

 

Abstract

 

This paper is a transcript of three tapes of reminiscences made by Dr Lawrence Dunegan, of a speech given on March 20, 1969 by Dr Richard Day, an Illuminati insider. The tapes were recorded by Randy Engel, National Director of the US Coalition for Life, in 1988. 

Dr Dunegan claims he attended a medical meeting on March 20, 1969 where Dr Richard Day made “off the record” remarks during an addressed at the Pittsburgh Pediatric Society to a meeting of students and health professionals, who were destined to be leaders in medicine and health care. Dr Day died in 1989 but at the time was Professor of Paediatrics at Mount Sinai Medical School in New York and was previously the Medical Director of Planned Parenthood Federation of America. 

In Tape Three, a interview by Randy Engel, Dr Dunegan details Dr Day's credentials. These cleasrly show that Dr Day was an establishment insider privy to the overarching plan of the Elite Group which rules the Western world and which is working toward the creation of a World Dictatorship. This proposed global tyranny is usually called the New World Order and will comprise a secular and a spiritual component – a One World Government and a One World Religion. Most analysts of this plan describe it as Lucifer's Totalitarian World Empire.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eric R. Pianka - The Vanishing Book of Life on Earth (2004)

 

Introduction

 

The great North American tall grass prairie — we just took it and turned it all into agricultural lands. We exterminated the bison, wiped out the Indians, destroyed the prairie dogs and those black-faced ferrets. We just erased an entire ecosystem. Now this was very nice for Americans because that rich topsoil has allowed us to grow food and we can feed ourselves and the rest of the world and we’ve grown fat and apathetic and miserable as a result of it. We’ve lost the bison — we’ve lost an awful lot that we’ll never be able to recover. 

Today I want to talk about an impending doomsday. I’m going to go down, down, down and then I’m going to try to come up just a little bit at the end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forrester Jay - World Dynamics (1973)

Synopsis

Synopsis: World Dynamics represents a call to arms against this futility. It shows the opportunity for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the forces of his environment while there still remains time and maneuvering room. Man throughout history has focused on growth growth in population, standard of living, and geographical boundaries. But in the fixed space of the world, growth must in time give way to equilibrium. Malthus had postulated food supply as the ultimate limiting factor, but Professor Forrester suggests that pollution, crowding, and depletion of resources can play equally critical roles. Industrialization may be a more fundamental threat than population. Due to limitations of the environment, the entire world may not be able to rise to the standard of living that has been set as an example by the industrialized countries. Goals and aspirations of all countries must be drastically readjusted as growth and expansion give way to world equilibrium. The book is the first step towards adapting the principles of System Dynamics to the behavior of the forces involved in the transition from growth to world equilibrium. A stable enduring world equilibrium may require a combination of social, economic, and technical changes that include such counterintuitive policies as reducing the present emphasis on food production and industrialization Since its publication, the book has received world-wide notice and has catalyzed debate over the necessity of achieving world equilibrium. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Francis Fukuyama - Asia in a global war (1987)

 

Abstract

 

This article discusses the role of Asia in a future large-scale war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Soviet military buildup in the Far East and Asia's growing economic importance have led some observers to suggest that Asia rather than Europe may become the locus for a future U.S.-Soviet war. In spite of these changes, however, a "big" U.S.-Soviet war remains less likely to arise in Asia through escalation of local conflicts in the Far East than through the spread of clashes originating elsewhere, e.g., in Europe or the Persian Gulf. There are a number of reasons, historical and strategic, for thinking that the Soviet Union would not deliberately attack U.S. forces or allies in the Far East in a war that had begun outside of Asia. The United States is therefore likely itself to face the choice of whether to expand a European or South West Asian conflict to the Far East. This can be done in a number of ways, for example, through attacks on Soviet naval forces in the Sea of Okhotsk (as envisioned in the U.S. Navy's Maritime Strategy) or through air strikes against targets in the Soviet Far East. Opening up a second front in the Far East is likely to offer the United States concrete operational advantages, but will generate only a limited amount of politically useful leverage against the U.S.S.R. in a global conflict. Such a strategy is likely to face strong political opposition in Japan (which is crucial to U.S. ability to carry out operations against the Soviet Union), and may have unintended escalatory consequences. The article concludes that it would be preferable to concentrate on a strategy to delink the Far East from an extraregional conflict and to concentrate military planning on the defense of U.S. forces and allies in the area rather than offensive missions.

 

(RAND)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Francis Fukuyama - Gene Regime (2002)

 

Introduction

 

Imaginet he World Trade Organization( WTO) striking down a national ban on importing cloned embryos because it is a barrier to trade. Neither the WTO, nor individual governments, nor scientists, nor ethicists can effectively regulate human biotechnology on a global scale. So who will settle the troubling questions it raises?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Polak - The Image of the Future (2000)

Info

When Fred Polak came to the Institute for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences in Palo Alto as a Fellow in 1955, his recently published Die Toekomst Is Verleden Tijd had just receïved the Council of Europe Award. Since the Bouldings and the Polaks kept a joint household that exciting first year of the Institute's existence, Kenneth Boulding and I had ample opportunity to become acquainted with Fred Polak's unique ideas. The effect of that year on Kenneth Boulding can be traced to his The Image, which bears little surface relationship to The Image of the Future, but which did in fact first take root in Fred Polak's thinking, and vvas written at the close of that golden California year as a summing up of a rather
spécial kind of intellectual journey.

Professor Polak, the author of many previous publications on futurology, is the récipient of Fellowships from UNESCO, the Ford Foundation, and the Council of Europe which awarded him a prize for the original two-volume book The Image of the Future.

 

GOV.UK - Digital identity certification for right to work, right to rent and criminal record checks (2022)

Introduction

On 27 December 2021, the government announced its intention to enable employers and landlords to use certified digital identity service providers (IDSPs) to carry out identity checks on their behalf for many who are not in scope to use the Home Office online services, including British and Irish citizens. Alongside this the Disclosure and Barring Service’s (DBS) proposal will enable digital identity checking within their criminal record checking process using certified digital identity service IDSPs.

This guidance sets how IDSPs can become certified to complete digital identity checks for the Right to Work, Right to Rent, and DBS schemes respectively, in line with the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport’s (DCMS) UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework (the trust framework).

The trust framework is a set of rules organisations agree to follow to conduct secure, trustworthy identity or attribute checks. The initial alpha version of the trust framework was published in February 2021, with an updated version of the trust framework published in August 2021 following feedback from the public, industry, and civil society. A consultation on underpinning the trust framework in legislation ran from July to September 2021.

The Right to Work, Right to Rent, and DBS initiatives form part of DCMS’s trust framework’s testing process, and learnings will help to further refine its development.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implants - ASU - Advanced Neural Implants and Control (2002)

 

Info

 

The ability to engineer reliable, high-capacity direct interfaces to the brain and then integrate these into a host of new technologies will cause the world of tomorrow to be much different than that of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jonathan Glover - Causing Death and Saving Lives (1977)

 

Abstract

The moral problems of abortion, infanticide, suicide, euthanasia, capital punshiment, war and othe life-or-death choices. 

This is the earliest critical discussion in the context of modern/contemporary philosophy in the analytical tradition arguing that somebody with a reasonably stable character and the company of the right people would be able to enjoy eternity. 

 

 

 

Jonathan Ledgard - Interspecies Money (2022)

 

Brookings (Jonathan Ledgard) - Financing the preservation of diverse life on Earth in a capitalist system (2022)

 

Info

 

“Interspecies money” is the brainchild of British futurist Jonathan Ledgard, who has built a reputation for throwing out imaginative, left-field solutions to the planet’s existential threats. He started with a few key observations. First, biodiversity tends to be high where people are poor. Second, technological advances such as drones, smartphones, genomics and data storage have made it easier and cheaper to track wildlife. And third, new software tools including cryptocurrencies, blockchain and artificial intelligence make it possible to create digital avatars with agency – including spending power – in the real world. If we can do that for humans, he thought, why can’t we do it for nonhumans, allowing them to trade with us for the things that matter to each?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kate Rodriguez - Have we reached the fourth industrial revolution (2017)

 

Abstract

 

When political, business and nonprofit leaders meet each January for the World Economic Forum (WEF), one theme dominates the conversation. This year, it was the ideas in Klaus Schwab’s book The Fourth Industrial Revolution, which asserts that global society is entering a new phase of development, one in which disruptive technologies are fundamentally changing the world. The fusion of the digital world with the physical one brought about by breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, 3-D printing and energy storage will affect nearly every aspect of the way we work and live.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ministry of Defence - Allied Joint Doctrine for Psychological Operations (2015)

 

Info

 

Allied Joint Publication-3.10.1 outlines psychological operations planning and execution within the context of information operations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ministry of Defence - Strategic Trends: Future Character of Conflict (2015)

 

Introduction

 

There are a number of options available to a government seeking to achieve its policy objectives. These options include the use of soft and hard power involving activities across the diplomatic, economic and military levers of power. This paper seeks to describe what military forces are likely to experience in future conflicts, and provides pointers to those areas which will be essential to their success. Conflict follows a natural cycle of adaptation and response, but its evolution is neither linear, nor constant. Much in the last Defence Review remains valid. However, while we have adapted well to some of the demands of current operations there is a growing sense that aspects of Defence are out of phase and lagging; we are still optimised for the conflicts that we fought in the past. Future conflict will be increasingly hybrid in character. This is not code for insurgency or stabilisation, it is about a change in the mindset of our adversaries, who are aiming to exploit our weaknesses using a wide variety of high-end and lowend asymmetric techniques. These forms of conflict are transcending our conventional understanding of what equates to irregular and regular military activity; the ‘conflict paradigm’ has shifted and we must adapt our approaches if we are to succeed. From the evidence collected for this paper, it is clear that the challenges of the future will demand even greater institutional agility in the face of major resource constraints and some profoundly worrying dications that the West may be losing the initiative in terms of dictating the way war is fought. This paper, which draws upon the recently updated National Security Strategy (NSS) and the Department for International Development (DFID) White Paper, will offer a view on the future character of conflict and then identify the broad implications.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ministry of Defence - Integrated Operating Concept 2025 (2021)

 

Foreword

 

The strategic context is increasingly complex, dynamic and competitive. We live in an era of strategic competition in which long-held assumptions are challenged daily. Old distinctions between ‘peace’ and ‘war’, between ‘public’ and ‘private’, between ‘foreign’ and ‘domestic’ and between ‘state’ and ‘non-state’ are increasingly out of date. Our authoritarian rivals see the strategic context as a continuous struggle in which non-military and military instruments are used unconstrained by any distinction between peace and war. These regimes believe that they are already engaged in an intense form of conflict that is predominantly political rather than military. Their strategy of ‘political warfare’ is designed to undermine cohesion, to erode economic, political and social resilience, and to compete for strategic advantage in key regions of the world.

The Integrated Operating Concept is designed to deal with this challenge. It updates our thinking on deterrence, recognising that our rivals are seeking to win without eliciting a warfighting response. Hence it establishes the need to compete below the threshold of war and it distinguishes between ‘operating’ and ‘warfighting’. It emphasises the importance of integration with allies, of the levers of statecraft, and across the five operational domains – multi-domain integration. This requires a transformation of the military instrument, including the need to structure forces to operate that can be adapted at graduated readiness to warfight while retaining some forces, including the Reserve, that are optimised to warfight. The ability to warfight is fundamental to our credibility.
Defence is confronted with two imperatives. We must establish a strategic culture, posture and ‘way of warfare’ that is fit for purpose in this new era of global competition; and we must modernise at the pace of relevance to be able to handle future threats. The Integrated Operating Concept is designed to guide our approach to addressing these challenges in the immediate term and represents a significant shift in military philosophy.